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Remodeling spending was flat on average across U.S. states in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares recorded growth.
NAHB cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on current projects, while pointing to housing age, home equity and demand for aging-in-place upgrades as longer-term supports. The state projections are estimates produced with a proprietary model, not a direct count of spending.
Remodeling spending was flat on average across the states in the second quarter of 2026, even as the broader U.S. housing market slowed, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) State Projections of Remodeling. The estimates showed spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24, indicating little nationwide change but varied results by state.
The NAHB report put the average state growth rate at 0.0%. Among the 10 states with the largest shares of the remodeling market, only North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said. The supplied report does not give state-level growth rates or dollar totals, so it is not possible to compare the size of gains and declines.
The State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) provides quarterly estimates of remodeling spending and market share by state. NAHB says its proprietary statistical model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data, several state-level indicators and the association’s annual state remodeling forecast. The figures are model-based estimates rather than a direct tally of every project or contractor’s revenue.
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike attributed the flat results to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment, which he said are weighing on projects. Separately, NAHB reported that its Remodeling Market Index, a measure of industry confidence, had stayed above 60 for the past year. The source material does not provide the index’s latest quarterly reading or its comparison period.
What Flat Spending Means for Remodelers
The statewide split suggests the national average masks different local market conditions. For retailers, contractors and suppliers, demand may depend more on the state and customer segment than on a single national trend. The report’s finding that only two of the 10 largest markets grew also indicates that gains were concentrated outside most of the biggest remodeling markets, although the source does not quantify how much each state contributed to the overall result.
Flat estimated spending amid higher costs and weak consumer sentiment points to pressure on near-term project activity. Homeowners may delay work or adjust project scope when costs are high, but the source does not measure cancellations or explain how consumers changed their plans. The figures also do not establish whether flat spending reflects the number of projects, their average cost, or a combination of factors.
For households planning repairs or upgrades, the report is a broad industry signal, not a forecast of local prices or contractor availability. NAHB’s longer-term case rests on older homes, accumulated home equity and aging-in-place needs; those factors may support demand over time, but the report does not give a timetable or a quantified growth outlook for individual homeowners.
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How NAHB Tracks State Remodeling
The SPR is designed to track quarterly changes across states, using national spending data alongside state indicators and NAHB’s annual forecast. Its 0.0% average growth rate describes the report’s state-level results; the source does not specify a separate national dollar-weighted total. The 26-to-24 split likewise counts states, not the amount of spending represented by each state.
NAHB also described remodeling as an expanding part of residential construction. It reported that the number of remodeling firms rose from 69,000 in 2000 to 128,000 at the start of 2025. The source says the sector accounts for a growing share of residential construction firms and spending, but provides no percentages for those shares in this report.
Limits of the State Estimates
The report does not provide state-by-state spending totals, growth percentages or a national dollar figure in the supplied material. It also does not state the size of the revisions, if any, to earlier estimates or explain how much uncertainty surrounds the model. The 0.0% average should not be read as proof that every state, business or type of project was unchanged.
NAHB’s explanations for flat activity and its expectations for future growth are attributed assessments, not findings that establish cause and effect. The source does not provide separate measures of project volume, homeowner budgets, contractor backlogs or construction costs. It is also unclear how the broader housing slowdown affected remodeling demand in different regions.
Signals to Watch in Later Quarters
Future quarterly releases of the State Projections of Remodeling should show whether the state-level pattern changes and whether spending moves above or below the flat average. Readers can also watch the Remodeling Market Index for further movement, though the source gives no specific next release date or forecast threshold.
NAHB expects home equity and demand for aging-in-place upgrades to support remodeling over the longer term. Whether those factors offset construction costs and cautious consumer sentiment in upcoming quarters remains to be seen; the report provides no schedule for when growth might resume.
Key Questions
Was remodeling spending up or down in Q2 2026?
It was flat on average across states, with an average growth rate of 0.0% in NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
Among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth. The source does not give their growth rates.
How does NAHB calculate the state projections?
NAHB says its proprietary model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data, multiple state-level indicators and its annual state remodeling forecast. The results are estimates, not a direct count of all remodeling work.
Why did NAHB say spending was flat?
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects. The report attributes that explanation to Pike and does not independently measure how much each factor affected spending.
Does the report forecast remodeling growth?
NAHB said it expects remodeling to grow in the years ahead, citing home equity, an aging housing stock and homeowners’ interest in aging in place. The supplied report does not specify a growth rate or date for that expected increase.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
